Bitcoin's 50-day average crossed above its 200-day on September 8, 2026 — the golden cross. Before 2023 this was the only regime where the score's edge showed up; since 2023 we haven't been able to measure one, so the daily read ranks the leaders as a watchlist.
Both framings assume BTC simply holds a flat price while the averages catch up — a modelling device to make the distance concrete, not a forecast of what price will do.
Across 9 years of BTC history there have been 8 completed risk-on stretches before this one. The shortest ran 36 days, the median 185, the longest 394. The current one is at 60 days — still short of the historical median.
| Cross | Date | Regime that followed | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOLDEN | 2026-09-08 | risk-on · ongoing | 59 d |
| DEATH | 2025-11-16 | risk-off | 296 d |
| GOLDEN | 2025-05-22 | risk-on | 178 d |
| DEATH | 2025-04-07 | risk-off | 45 d |
| GOLDEN | 2024-10-28 | risk-on | 161 d |
| DEATH | 2024-08-10 | risk-off | 79 d |
| GOLDEN | 2023-10-30 | risk-on | 285 d |
| DEATH | 2023-09-12 | risk-off | 48 d |
| GOLDEN | 2023-02-07 | risk-on | 217 d |
| DEATH | 2022-01-14 | risk-off | 389 d |
| GOLDEN | 2021-09-15 | risk-on | 121 d |
| DEATH | 2021-06-19 | risk-off | 88 d |
| GOLDEN | 2020-05-21 | risk-on | 394 d |
| DEATH | 2020-03-25 | risk-off | 57 d |
| GOLDEN | 2020-02-18 | risk-on | 36 d |
| DEATH | 2019-10-26 | risk-off | 115 d |
| GOLDEN | 2019-04-24 | risk-on | 185 d |
| DEATH | 2018-03-31 | risk-off | 389 d |
We score 49 crypto majors on trend structure every day. Split by this single switch, before 2023 top-scoring coins beat bottom-scoring coins by about +24 percentage points over the next 30 days in risk-on (bootstrap confidence interval excludes zero), and in risk-off that edge disappeared. Since 2023 the risk-on gap has shrunk to about +3.6 points, which we can't tell apart from noise. And using the switch on its own — hold everything in risk-on, cash in risk-off — has made about 0% a year since 2023, against about +32% for simply holding. We publish that because it's what the data says (measured 2026-09-29).
We also tested momentum rotation, oversold mean-reversion and weekly reversal strategies in risk-off. Nothing survived. So in risk-off the score has nothing to offer — but that is not the same as cash being the right place: since 2023 the market rose more on risk-off days than on risk-on days. The live track record logs every daily run.
The 50/200 cross is deliberately slow — it confirms a turn rather than predicting one. So this page also watches a faster pair, the 30/100-day averages, which historically flip ~3 weeks before the confirmed cross. Golden warnings confirmed 73% of the time within 90 days — and 100% (5 of 5) when BTC was already above its 200-day average, versus only 50% below it. Exit warnings confirmed 91% of the time.
This switch has moved only 18 times in 9 years. When it moves, you'll know the same day — with that day's scoreboard. Until then, we won't bother you.