Live structure read · updated daily

Is Monero (XMR) worth buying right now?

Strong chart — we'd still wait.
Structure score 20/20 Strong tier

Monero scores 20/20 today — one of the strongest charts on our board. But Bitcoin's regime is risk-off, and across nine years of data, buying strength in risk-off had no validated edge. Impressive chart, wrong season.

Last close $378.61
7-day +4.9%
30-day +21.6%
RSI(14) 65
Mcap rank #19
Bitcoin regime: RISK-OFF — death cross on 2025-11-16, 265 days ago. In this regime we found no validated edge in buying anything — strength included. We tested momentum rotation, oversold mean-reversion and weekly reversal through nine years of data; nothing survived. When does it flip? →

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The last 90 days

trigger $379.00$427.22$292.03
close20-day avg50-day avgbreakout trigger

Today's read, in plain English

What's working: price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages; the 50-day average itself is sloping upward; the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average). Momentum context: RSI(14) is at 65 with positive MACD. The breakout trigger sits at $379.00, about 0.1% above the last close.

The 10-component rubric

What's working (10)

  • ✓price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages+3
  • ✓the 50-day average itself is sloping upward+3
  • ✓the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average)+3
  • ✓pullbacks are bottoming higher than the last one+2
  • ✓RSI sits in the healthy 50–72 trend band+2
  • ✓it is outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days+2
  • ✓up-days carry more volume than down-days+2
  • ✓the latest swing high broke above the prior one+1
  • ✓MACD momentum is on the positive side+1
  • ✓price is within 3% of its breakout trigger+1

What's missing (0)

  • ✓Nothing — a full sweep of the rubric.

Each component is weighted by how much it historically improved forward returns; the weights sum to 20. The full methodology — including what we tested and rejected — is public on the daily read.

What would change our answer

  • → Bitcoin's regime flipping back to risk-on (the 50-day average crossing back above the 200-day) — without it, no chart earns a buy from us

Key levels & context

Last close$378.61
Breakout trigger$379.00 (0.1% away)
50-day average$347.48 (price +9.0% vs it)
Volatility (ATR14)3.6% / day
RSI(14) / MACD65 / positive
LiquidityOK (mcap rank #19)

Can you time Monero with moving averages?

One rule, fully visible: hold XMR while its 10-day average is above its 30-day average, stand in cash when it isn't. Of the 295 fast/slow pairs we sweep daily across 1.3 years of history, 10/30 is this coin's best — in hindsight. Every triangle below is a real cross: exactly when the rule bought and when it stepped aside.

2025-06-05 · go to cash · $316.672025-07-07 · go long · $315.662025-07-27 · go to cash · $325.352025-09-02 · go long · $269.652025-10-19 · go to cash · $315.142025-10-20 · go long · $309.122026-01-08 · go to cash · $452.742026-01-10 · go long · $472.002026-01-28 · go to cash · $469.162026-03-04 · go long · $356.122026-03-26 · go to cash · $328.982026-04-15 · go long · $344.372026-05-22 · go to cash · $381.252026-07-12 · go long · $324.28Apr 2025Sep 2025Mar 2026Aug 2026$710.98$213.91
closeSMA 10 (fast)SMA 30 (slow)rule says hold▲ go long▼ go to cash
Last two years shown (14 of 14 crosses in the full 1.3-year history). Hover any triangle for the exact date and price.
×2.9
the rule · 132%/yr
×1.7
buy & hold · 48%/yr
-39%
worst drawdown vs -59% buy & hold
8 · 75%
trades · win rate
×2.8
after 0.2%/side fees
LONG
since 2026-07-12
SMA 2/5: +39%/yrSMA 2/8: +28%/yrSMA 2/10: +39%/yrSMA 2/12: +70%/yrSMA 2/15: +55%/yrSMA 2/18: +45%/yrSMA 2/20: +55%/yrSMA 2/21: +56%/yrSMA 2/25: +53%/yrSMA 2/30: +44%/yrSMA 2/34: +23%/yrSMA 2/38: +31%/yrSMA 2/40: +48%/yrSMA 2/44: +35%/yrSMA 2/50: +14%/yrSMA 2/55: +18%/yrSMA 2/60: +22%/yrSMA 2/75: +6%/yrSMA 2/100: -18%/yrSMA 2/120: -40%/yrSMA 2/150: -11%/yrSMA 2/200: -19%/yrSMA 3/5: +30%/yrSMA 3/8: +59%/yrSMA 3/10: +109%/yrSMA 3/12: +80%/yrSMA 3/15: +67%/yrSMA 3/18: +83%/yrSMA 3/20: +79%/yrSMA 3/21: +73%/yrSMA 3/25: +78%/yrSMA 3/30: +47%/yrSMA 3/34: +41%/yrSMA 3/38: +45%/yrSMA 3/40: +59%/yrSMA 3/44: +54%/yrSMA 3/50: +18%/yrSMA 3/55: +41%/yrSMA 3/60: +15%/yrSMA 3/75: +31%/yrSMA 3/100: +13%/yrSMA 3/120: -19%/yrSMA 3/150: -15%/yrSMA 3/200: -17%/yrSMA 4/5: -28%/yrSMA 4/8: +73%/yrSMA 4/10: +117%/yrSMA 4/12: +81%/yrSMA 4/15: +95%/yrSMA 4/18: +76%/yrSMA 4/20: +73%/yrSMA 4/21: +78%/yrSMA 4/25: +96%/yrSMA 4/30: +67%/yrSMA 4/34: +61%/yrSMA 4/38: +72%/yrSMA 4/40: +77%/yrSMA 4/44: +62%/yrSMA 4/50: +28%/yrSMA 4/55: +37%/yrSMA 4/60: +16%/yrSMA 4/75: +21%/yrSMA 4/100: -3%/yrSMA 4/120: -16%/yrSMA 4/150: -8%/yrSMA 4/200: -14%/yrSMA 5/8: +99%/yrSMA 5/10: +104%/yrSMA 5/12: +102%/yrSMA 5/15: +108%/yrSMA 5/18: +61%/yrSMA 5/20: +91%/yrSMA 5/21: +92%/yrSMA 5/25: +124%/yrSMA 5/30: +103%/yrSMA 5/34: +79%/yrSMA 5/38: +95%/yrSMA 5/40: +82%/yrSMA 5/44: +61%/yrSMA 5/50: +34%/yrSMA 5/55: +38%/yrSMA 5/60: +9%/yrSMA 5/75: +18%/yrSMA 5/100: +4%/yrSMA 5/120: -2%/yrSMA 5/150: -23%/yrSMA 5/200: +7%/yrSMA 8/10: +90%/yrSMA 8/12: +92%/yrSMA 8/15: +87%/yrSMA 8/18: +73%/yrSMA 8/20: +96%/yrSMA 8/21: +61%/yrSMA 8/25: +113%/yrSMA 8/30: +117%/yrSMA 8/34: +84%/yrSMA 8/38: +111%/yrSMA 8/40: +90%/yrSMA 8/44: +66%/yrSMA 8/50: +31%/yrSMA 8/55: +32%/yrSMA 8/60: +6%/yrSMA 8/75: +25%/yrSMA 8/100: +11%/yrSMA 8/120: -35%/yrSMA 8/150: -3%/yrSMA 8/200: +7%/yrSMA 10/12: +47%/yrSMA 10/15: +37%/yrSMA 10/18: +37%/yrSMA 10/20: +52%/yrSMA 10/21: +48%/yrSMA 10/25: +84%/yrSMA 10/30: +132%/yrSMA 10/34: +110%/yrSMA 10/38: +87%/yrSMA 10/40: +82%/yrSMA 10/44: +61%/yrSMA 10/50: +37%/yrSMA 10/55: +7%/yrSMA 10/60: -3%/yrSMA 10/75: +8%/yrSMA 10/100: -25%/yrSMA 10/120: -32%/yrSMA 10/150: +9%/yrSMA 10/200: +5%/yrSMA 12/15: +34%/yrSMA 12/18: +45%/yrSMA 12/20: +42%/yrSMA 12/21: +48%/yrSMA 12/25: +86%/yrSMA 12/30: +114%/yrSMA 12/34: +107%/yrSMA 12/38: +98%/yrSMA 12/40: +85%/yrSMA 12/44: +58%/yrSMA 12/50: +32%/yrSMA 12/55: -4%/yrSMA 12/60: -9%/yrSMA 12/75: +10%/yrSMA 12/100: -30%/yrSMA 12/120: -37%/yrSMA 12/150: +2%/yrSMA 12/200: +9%/yrSMA 15/18: +62%/yrSMA 15/20: +74%/yrSMA 15/21: +38%/yrSMA 15/25: +59%/yrSMA 15/30: +109%/yrSMA 15/34: +81%/yrSMA 15/38: +66%/yrSMA 15/40: +54%/yrSMA 15/44: +27%/yrSMA 15/50: +1%/yrSMA 15/55: -2%/yrSMA 15/60: +1%/yrSMA 15/75: -8%/yrSMA 15/100: -19%/yrSMA 15/120: -32%/yrSMA 15/150: +2%/yrSMA 15/200: +15%/yrSMA 18/20: +68%/yrSMA 18/21: +56%/yrSMA 18/25: +52%/yrSMA 18/30: +102%/yrSMA 18/34: +54%/yrSMA 18/38: +47%/yrSMA 18/40: +33%/yrSMA 18/44: +10%/yrSMA 18/50: -1%/yrSMA 18/55: +4%/yrSMA 18/60: -39%/yrSMA 18/75: -4%/yrSMA 18/100: -11%/yrSMA 18/120: -28%/yrSMA 18/150: +19%/yrSMA 18/200: -1%/yrSMA 20/21: +52%/yrSMA 20/25: +42%/yrSMA 20/30: +43%/yrSMA 20/34: +64%/yrSMA 20/38: +44%/yrSMA 20/40: +32%/yrSMA 20/44: -12%/yrSMA 20/50: -29%/yrSMA 20/55: -27%/yrSMA 20/60: -34%/yrSMA 20/75: -5%/yrSMA 20/100: -15%/yrSMA 20/120: -23%/yrSMA 20/150: +15%/yrSMA 20/200: -7%/yrSMA 21/25: +82%/yrSMA 21/30: +41%/yrSMA 21/34: +41%/yrSMA 21/38: +13%/yrSMA 21/40: +3%/yrSMA 21/44: -11%/yrSMA 21/50: -21%/yrSMA 21/55: -20%/yrSMA 21/60: -34%/yrSMA 21/75: -8%/yrSMA 21/100: -18%/yrSMA 21/120: -25%/yrSMA 21/150: +14%/yrSMA 21/200: -8%/yrSMA 25/30: +17%/yrSMA 25/34: +16%/yrSMA 25/38: +6%/yrSMA 25/40: +0%/yrSMA 25/44: -12%/yrSMA 25/50: -23%/yrSMA 25/55: -33%/yrSMA 25/60: -30%/yrSMA 25/75: +4%/yrSMA 25/100: -10%/yrSMA 25/120: -24%/yrSMA 25/150: -9%/yrSMA 25/200: -1%/yrSMA 30/34: -7%/yrSMA 30/38: -2%/yrSMA 30/40: -5%/yrSMA 30/44: -16%/yrSMA 30/50: -27%/yrSMA 30/55: -18%/yrSMA 30/60: -28%/yrSMA 30/75: -1%/yrSMA 30/100: -8%/yrSMA 30/120: -37%/yrSMA 30/150: +2%/yrSMA 30/200: +16%/yrSMA 34/38: -12%/yrSMA 34/40: -8%/yrSMA 34/44: -11%/yrSMA 34/50: -20%/yrSMA 34/55: -16%/yrSMA 34/60: -14%/yrSMA 34/75: -8%/yrSMA 34/100: -22%/yrSMA 34/120: -27%/yrSMA 34/150: -14%/yrSMA 34/200: +14%/yrSMA 38/40: -15%/yrSMA 38/44: -6%/yrSMA 38/50: -20%/yrSMA 38/55: -4%/yrSMA 38/60: -12%/yrSMA 38/75: -5%/yrSMA 38/100: -15%/yrSMA 38/120: -34%/yrSMA 38/150: -16%/yrSMA 38/200: +18%/yrSMA 40/44: -1%/yrSMA 40/50: -19%/yrSMA 40/55: -18%/yrSMA 40/60: -16%/yrSMA 40/75: -9%/yrSMA 40/100: -21%/yrSMA 40/120: -36%/yrSMA 40/150: -13%/yrSMA 40/200: +21%/yrSMA 44/50: -16%/yrSMA 44/55: -19%/yrSMA 44/60: -19%/yrSMA 44/75: -6%/yrSMA 44/100: -17%/yrSMA 44/120: -33%/yrSMA 44/150: +5%/yrSMA 44/200: +16%/yrSMA 50/55: -15%/yrSMA 50/60: -20%/yrSMA 50/75: +3%/yrSMA 50/100: -15%/yrSMA 50/120: -33%/yrSMA 50/150: -11%/yrSMA 50/200: +17%/yrSMA 55/60: -19%/yrSMA 55/75: -14%/yrSMA 55/100: -14%/yrSMA 55/120: -40%/yrSMA 55/150: +0%/yrSMA 55/200: +18%/yrSMA 60/75: -3%/yrSMA 60/100: -13%/yrSMA 60/120: -35%/yrSMA 60/150: -2%/yrSMA 60/200: +4%/yrSMA 75/100: -26%/yrSMA 75/120: -27%/yrSMA 75/150: -4%/yrSMA 75/200: -15%/yrSMA 100/120: -40%/yrSMA 100/150: +12%/yrSMA 100/200: -6%/yrSMA 150/200: +9%/yr5152540601502002818304475150slow average (days) →
Rows = fast average, columns = slow. Greenest cell +132%/yr, reddest -40%/yr — scale is relative to this coin only. The white square is the pair charted on the left. Hover any cell for its numbers.

The map behind the pair

Each square is one fast/slow combination, coloured by what it returned per year holding XMR only while its fast average was above its slow one. The chart on the left is the white square, traded for real — every whipsaw included. Best-in-hindsight always flatters — treat it as a ceiling, not a promise.

Honest math: 8 round trips at 0.2% fees per side turns ×2.9 into ×2.8 — still ahead of buy & hold's ×1.7. Right now the rule is long (since 2026-07-12). This is an educational backtest, not a strategy we sell — our product's regime gate works on the same principle, one deliberately slow pair, validated out of sample.

Every trade the rule made — 8 round trips, newest first

6 winners, 2 losers. Cross-close to cross-close, before fees. The open row is the current position marked to the last close.

EnteredExitedIn atOut atReturnDays
2026-07-12still open$324.28$382.30+17.9%27
2026-04-152026-05-22$344.37$381.25+10.7%37
2026-03-042026-03-26$356.12$328.98-7.6%22
2026-01-102026-01-28$472.00$469.16-0.6%18
2025-10-202026-01-08$309.12$452.74+46.5%80
2025-09-022025-10-19$269.65$315.14+16.9%47
2025-07-072025-07-27$315.66$325.35+3.1%20
2025-04-252025-06-05$227.62$316.67+39.1%41

How other coins score today

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