Live structure read · updated daily

Is NEAR Protocol (NEAR) worth buying right now?

We'd wait.
Structure score 0/20 Poor tier

NEAR Protocol scores 0/20 today — Poor tier — and Bitcoin's regime is risk-off, where buying weakness has been a losing proposition and even buying strength had no validated edge. The honest call is to stand down.

Last close $1.59
7-day -3.7%
30-day -16.0%
RSI(14) 34
Mcap rank #42
Bitcoin regime: RISK-OFF — death cross on 2025-11-16, 265 days ago. In this regime we found no validated edge in buying anything — strength included. We tested momentum rotation, oversold mean-reversion and weekly reversal through nine years of data; nothing survived. When does it flip? →

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The last 90 days

trigger $1.77$3.09$1.37
close20-day avg50-day avgbreakout trigger

Today's read, in plain English

Nothing in the rubric is working right now — every component of a healthy uptrend is missing. What's missing: price is below its 20/50-day average stack; the 50-day average is still flat or falling; the weekly trend gate is shut — the bigger timeframe hasn't turned. Momentum context: RSI(14) is at 34 with negative MACD. The breakout trigger sits at $1.77, about 11.2% above the last close.

The 10-component rubric

What's working (0)

  • —Nothing on the board today.

What's missing (10)

  • ✗price is below its 20/50-day average stack+3 missed
  • ✗the 50-day average is still flat or falling+3 missed
  • ✗the weekly trend gate is shut — the bigger timeframe hasn't turned+3 missed
  • ✗the latest pullback undercut the prior low+2 missed
  • ✗RSI is outside the healthy 50–72 trend band+2 missed
  • ✗it is lagging Bitcoin over the last 90 days+2 missed
  • ✗down-days still carry the heavier volume+2 missed
  • ✗it hasn't printed a higher swing high yet+1 missed
  • ✗MACD momentum is still negative+1 missed
  • ✗price is still far from its breakout trigger+1 missed

Each component is weighted by how much it historically improved forward returns; the weights sum to 20. The full methodology — including what we tested and rejected — is public on the daily read.

What would change our answer

  • → Bitcoin's regime flipping back to risk-on (the 50-day average crossing back above the 200-day) — without it, no chart earns a buy from us
  • → price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages
  • → the 50-day average itself is sloping upward
  • → the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average)
  • → pullbacks are bottoming higher than the last one

Key levels & context

Last close$1.59
Breakout trigger$1.77 (11.2% away)
50-day average$1.84 (price -13.4% vs it)
Volatility (ATR14)5.7% / day
RSI(14) / MACD34 / negative
LiquidityOK (mcap rank #42)

Can you time NEAR Protocol with moving averages?

One rule, fully visible: hold NEAR while its 12-day average is above its 38-day average, stand in cash when it isn't. Of the 295 fast/slow pairs we sweep daily across 5.7 years of history, 12/38 is this coin's best — in hindsight. Every triangle below is a real cross: exactly when the rule bought and when it stepped aside.

2024-08-31 · go long · $4.032024-09-05 · go to cash · $3.712024-09-20 · go long · $4.392024-10-24 · go to cash · $4.722024-11-15 · go long · $5.562024-12-20 · go to cash · $5.352025-04-29 · go long · $2.532025-06-02 · go to cash · $2.502025-07-12 · go long · $2.482025-08-08 · go to cash · $2.712025-08-15 · go long · $2.712025-08-20 · go to cash · $2.552025-09-15 · go long · $2.632025-10-13 · go to cash · $2.622025-11-12 · go long · $2.542025-11-22 · go to cash · $1.842026-01-06 · go long · $1.812026-01-25 · go to cash · $1.442026-03-04 · go long · $1.312026-03-31 · go to cash · $1.192026-04-12 · go long · $1.352026-06-23 · go to cash · $1.98Aug 2024Apr 2025Dec 2025Aug 2026$8.02$0.9620
closeSMA 12 (fast)SMA 38 (slow)rule says hold▲ go long▼ go to cash
Last two years shown (22 of 51 crosses in the full 5.7-year history). Hover any triangle for the exact date and price.
×76.0
the rule · 113%/yr
×1.4
buy & hold · 6%/yr
-77%
worst drawdown vs -95% buy & hold
26 · 54%
trades · win rate
×68.5
after 0.2%/side fees
IN CASH
since 2026-06-23
SMA 2/5: +23%/yrSMA 2/8: +24%/yrSMA 2/10: +19%/yrSMA 2/12: +25%/yrSMA 2/15: +21%/yrSMA 2/18: +46%/yrSMA 2/20: +37%/yrSMA 2/21: +42%/yrSMA 2/25: +47%/yrSMA 2/30: +57%/yrSMA 2/34: +83%/yrSMA 2/38: +78%/yrSMA 2/40: +61%/yrSMA 2/44: +70%/yrSMA 2/50: +54%/yrSMA 2/55: +55%/yrSMA 2/60: +46%/yrSMA 2/75: +43%/yrSMA 2/100: -1%/yrSMA 2/120: +10%/yrSMA 2/150: +6%/yrSMA 2/200: -16%/yrSMA 3/5: +7%/yrSMA 3/8: +20%/yrSMA 3/10: +16%/yrSMA 3/12: +19%/yrSMA 3/15: +27%/yrSMA 3/18: +44%/yrSMA 3/20: +49%/yrSMA 3/21: +42%/yrSMA 3/25: +54%/yrSMA 3/30: +68%/yrSMA 3/34: +69%/yrSMA 3/38: +52%/yrSMA 3/40: +53%/yrSMA 3/44: +39%/yrSMA 3/50: +36%/yrSMA 3/55: +40%/yrSMA 3/60: +44%/yrSMA 3/75: +27%/yrSMA 3/100: +10%/yrSMA 3/120: +18%/yrSMA 3/150: +4%/yrSMA 3/200: -16%/yrSMA 4/5: +0%/yrSMA 4/8: +31%/yrSMA 4/10: +41%/yrSMA 4/12: +21%/yrSMA 4/15: +31%/yrSMA 4/18: +50%/yrSMA 4/20: +57%/yrSMA 4/21: +67%/yrSMA 4/25: +64%/yrSMA 4/30: +53%/yrSMA 4/34: +70%/yrSMA 4/38: +31%/yrSMA 4/40: +34%/yrSMA 4/44: +36%/yrSMA 4/50: +39%/yrSMA 4/55: +45%/yrSMA 4/60: +33%/yrSMA 4/75: +27%/yrSMA 4/100: +19%/yrSMA 4/120: +13%/yrSMA 4/150: +2%/yrSMA 4/200: -4%/yrSMA 5/8: +19%/yrSMA 5/10: +8%/yrSMA 5/12: +16%/yrSMA 5/15: +24%/yrSMA 5/18: +41%/yrSMA 5/20: +59%/yrSMA 5/21: +84%/yrSMA 5/25: +60%/yrSMA 5/30: +58%/yrSMA 5/34: +59%/yrSMA 5/38: +44%/yrSMA 5/40: +38%/yrSMA 5/44: +36%/yrSMA 5/50: +43%/yrSMA 5/55: +35%/yrSMA 5/60: +34%/yrSMA 5/75: +18%/yrSMA 5/100: +14%/yrSMA 5/120: +8%/yrSMA 5/150: -0%/yrSMA 5/200: -1%/yrSMA 8/10: +36%/yrSMA 8/12: +13%/yrSMA 8/15: +14%/yrSMA 8/18: +20%/yrSMA 8/20: +45%/yrSMA 8/21: +68%/yrSMA 8/25: +42%/yrSMA 8/30: +54%/yrSMA 8/34: +53%/yrSMA 8/38: +58%/yrSMA 8/40: +58%/yrSMA 8/44: +81%/yrSMA 8/50: +57%/yrSMA 8/55: +62%/yrSMA 8/60: +44%/yrSMA 8/75: +40%/yrSMA 8/100: +12%/yrSMA 8/120: +6%/yrSMA 8/150: +2%/yrSMA 8/200: -1%/yrSMA 10/12: -14%/yrSMA 10/15: +11%/yrSMA 10/18: +48%/yrSMA 10/20: +68%/yrSMA 10/21: +46%/yrSMA 10/25: +57%/yrSMA 10/30: +48%/yrSMA 10/34: +69%/yrSMA 10/38: +72%/yrSMA 10/40: +64%/yrSMA 10/44: +72%/yrSMA 10/50: +64%/yrSMA 10/55: +46%/yrSMA 10/60: +49%/yrSMA 10/75: +37%/yrSMA 10/100: +21%/yrSMA 10/120: +1%/yrSMA 10/150: +2%/yrSMA 10/200: -0%/yrSMA 12/15: +26%/yrSMA 12/18: +70%/yrSMA 12/20: +89%/yrSMA 12/21: +79%/yrSMA 12/25: +85%/yrSMA 12/30: +46%/yrSMA 12/34: +92%/yrSMA 12/38: +114%/yrSMA 12/40: +76%/yrSMA 12/44: +66%/yrSMA 12/50: +56%/yrSMA 12/55: +60%/yrSMA 12/60: +54%/yrSMA 12/75: +56%/yrSMA 12/100: +20%/yrSMA 12/120: +1%/yrSMA 12/150: +2%/yrSMA 12/200: +1%/yrSMA 15/18: +66%/yrSMA 15/20: +67%/yrSMA 15/21: +70%/yrSMA 15/25: +35%/yrSMA 15/30: +39%/yrSMA 15/34: +64%/yrSMA 15/38: +80%/yrSMA 15/40: +62%/yrSMA 15/44: +53%/yrSMA 15/50: +45%/yrSMA 15/55: +44%/yrSMA 15/60: +58%/yrSMA 15/75: +51%/yrSMA 15/100: +16%/yrSMA 15/120: +4%/yrSMA 15/150: -3%/yrSMA 15/200: +11%/yrSMA 18/20: +72%/yrSMA 18/21: +51%/yrSMA 18/25: +20%/yrSMA 18/30: +29%/yrSMA 18/34: +60%/yrSMA 18/38: +64%/yrSMA 18/40: +48%/yrSMA 18/44: +33%/yrSMA 18/50: +43%/yrSMA 18/55: +41%/yrSMA 18/60: +42%/yrSMA 18/75: +42%/yrSMA 18/100: +12%/yrSMA 18/120: +7%/yrSMA 18/150: -8%/yrSMA 18/200: +3%/yrSMA 20/21: +21%/yrSMA 20/25: +4%/yrSMA 20/30: +40%/yrSMA 20/34: +50%/yrSMA 20/38: +48%/yrSMA 20/40: +44%/yrSMA 20/44: +40%/yrSMA 20/50: +32%/yrSMA 20/55: +38%/yrSMA 20/60: +36%/yrSMA 20/75: +26%/yrSMA 20/100: +12%/yrSMA 20/120: -2%/yrSMA 20/150: -8%/yrSMA 20/200: -8%/yrSMA 21/25: +8%/yrSMA 21/30: +29%/yrSMA 21/34: +50%/yrSMA 21/38: +46%/yrSMA 21/40: +48%/yrSMA 21/44: +45%/yrSMA 21/50: +24%/yrSMA 21/55: +38%/yrSMA 21/60: +34%/yrSMA 21/75: +27%/yrSMA 21/100: +3%/yrSMA 21/120: +0%/yrSMA 21/150: -7%/yrSMA 21/200: -6%/yrSMA 25/30: +45%/yrSMA 25/34: +55%/yrSMA 25/38: +46%/yrSMA 25/40: +25%/yrSMA 25/44: +9%/yrSMA 25/50: +16%/yrSMA 25/55: +26%/yrSMA 25/60: +29%/yrSMA 25/75: +24%/yrSMA 25/100: +1%/yrSMA 25/120: -4%/yrSMA 25/150: -10%/yrSMA 25/200: -14%/yrSMA 30/34: +45%/yrSMA 30/38: +26%/yrSMA 30/40: +27%/yrSMA 30/44: +24%/yrSMA 30/50: +17%/yrSMA 30/55: +21%/yrSMA 30/60: +13%/yrSMA 30/75: +20%/yrSMA 30/100: +10%/yrSMA 30/120: +12%/yrSMA 30/150: -15%/yrSMA 30/200: -17%/yrSMA 34/38: +6%/yrSMA 34/40: +4%/yrSMA 34/44: +8%/yrSMA 34/50: -7%/yrSMA 34/55: +9%/yrSMA 34/60: +13%/yrSMA 34/75: +23%/yrSMA 34/100: +4%/yrSMA 34/120: +1%/yrSMA 34/150: -12%/yrSMA 34/200: -23%/yrSMA 38/40: +1%/yrSMA 38/44: +5%/yrSMA 38/50: +8%/yrSMA 38/55: +12%/yrSMA 38/60: +18%/yrSMA 38/75: +13%/yrSMA 38/100: +10%/yrSMA 38/120: -7%/yrSMA 38/150: -17%/yrSMA 38/200: -22%/yrSMA 40/44: +23%/yrSMA 40/50: +15%/yrSMA 40/55: +11%/yrSMA 40/60: +9%/yrSMA 40/75: +9%/yrSMA 40/100: +13%/yrSMA 40/120: +2%/yrSMA 40/150: -20%/yrSMA 40/200: -27%/yrSMA 44/50: +20%/yrSMA 44/55: +12%/yrSMA 44/60: +11%/yrSMA 44/75: +7%/yrSMA 44/100: +7%/yrSMA 44/120: +8%/yrSMA 44/150: -24%/yrSMA 44/200: -32%/yrSMA 50/55: -5%/yrSMA 50/60: -4%/yrSMA 50/75: +9%/yrSMA 50/100: +19%/yrSMA 50/120: +5%/yrSMA 50/150: -22%/yrSMA 50/200: -32%/yrSMA 55/60: +3%/yrSMA 55/75: +22%/yrSMA 55/100: +8%/yrSMA 55/120: -3%/yrSMA 55/150: -30%/yrSMA 55/200: -30%/yrSMA 60/75: +22%/yrSMA 60/100: +17%/yrSMA 60/120: -11%/yrSMA 60/150: -23%/yrSMA 60/200: -27%/yrSMA 75/100: +18%/yrSMA 75/120: -11%/yrSMA 75/150: -22%/yrSMA 75/200: -36%/yrSMA 100/120: -16%/yrSMA 100/150: -31%/yrSMA 100/200: -41%/yrSMA 150/200: -35%/yr5152540601502002818304475150slow average (days) →
Rows = fast average, columns = slow. Greenest cell +114%/yr, reddest -41%/yr — scale is relative to this coin only. The white square is the pair charted on the left. Hover any cell for its numbers.

The map behind the pair

Each square is one fast/slow combination, coloured by what it returned per year holding NEAR only while its fast average was above its slow one. The chart on the left is the white square, traded for real — every whipsaw included. Best-in-hindsight always flatters — treat it as a ceiling, not a promise.

Honest math: 26 round trips at 0.2% fees per side turns ×76.0 into ×68.5 — still ahead of buy & hold's ×1.4. Right now the rule is in cash (since 2026-06-23). This is an educational backtest, not a strategy we sell — our product's regime gate works on the same principle, one deliberately slow pair, validated out of sample.

Every trade the rule made — 26 round trips, newest first

14 winners, 12 losers. Cross-close to cross-close, before fees. The open row is the current position marked to the last close.

EnteredExitedIn atOut atReturnDays
2026-04-122026-06-23$1.35$1.98+47.3%72
2026-03-042026-03-31$1.31$1.19-9.3%27
2026-01-062026-01-25$1.81$1.44-20.6%19
2025-11-122025-11-22$2.54$1.84-27.4%10
2025-09-152025-10-13$2.63$2.62-0.3%28
2025-08-152025-08-20$2.71$2.55-5.9%5
2025-07-122025-08-08$2.48$2.71+9.3%27
2025-04-292025-06-02$2.53$2.50-1.0%34
2024-11-152024-12-20$5.56$5.35-3.7%35
2024-09-202024-10-24$4.39$4.72+7.6%34
2024-08-312024-09-05$4.03$3.71-7.9%5
2024-07-192024-08-03$6.43$4.37-32.2%15
2024-04-302024-06-07$6.19$6.88+11.0%38
2024-02-162024-04-12$3.28$5.79+76.5%56
2023-10-282024-01-19$1.22$3.01+146.9%83
2023-07-032023-07-31$1.46$1.37-5.9%28
2023-04-092023-04-28$2.01$1.92-4.5%19
2023-01-112023-03-03$1.82$2.10+15.3%51
2022-09-182022-09-21$3.92$3.64-7.0%3
2022-07-182022-08-25$4.06$4.31+6.2%38
2022-03-172022-04-28$10.72$12.40+15.7%42
2021-12-182022-01-26$8.41$11.30+34.3%39
2021-10-222021-11-23$9.11$9.97+9.5%32
2021-07-312021-10-02$2.40$7.81+225.2%63
2020-12-232021-04-21$0.9619$4.78+396.5%119
2020-11-202020-12-16$0.9471$1.05+10.5%26

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