Live structure read · updated daily

Is Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) worth buying right now?

Close, but not a leader.
Structure score 15/20 Mid tier

Pudgy Penguins scores 15/20 today — Mid tier. The regime is risk-on, so setups matter — but stronger charts exist on the board.

Last close $0.0101
7-day +53.6%
30-day +9.2%
RSI(14) 71
Mcap rank #103
Bitcoin regime: RISK-ON — golden cross on 2026-09-08, 15 days ago. This is the regime where our validated edge exists: top-tier charts beat bottom-tier by ~12.5 percentage points over the next 30 days. Live regime status →

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The last 90 days

trigger $0.0106$0.0108$0.005641
close20-day avg50-day avgbreakout trigger

Today's read, in plain English

What's working: price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages; the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average); pullbacks are bottoming higher than the last one. What's missing: the 50-day average is still flat or falling; it hasn't printed a higher swing high yet; price is still far from its breakout trigger. Momentum context: RSI(14) is at 71 with positive MACD. The breakout trigger sits at $0.0106, about 5.2% above the last close.

The 10-component rubric

What's working (7)

  • ✓price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages+3
  • ✓the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average)+3
  • ✓pullbacks are bottoming higher than the last one+2
  • ✓RSI sits in the healthy 50–72 trend band+2
  • ✓it is outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days+2
  • ✓up-days carry more volume than down-days+2
  • ✓MACD momentum is on the positive side+1

What's missing (3)

  • ✗the 50-day average is still flat or falling+3 missed
  • ✗it hasn't printed a higher swing high yet+1 missed
  • ✗price is still far from its breakout trigger+1 missed

Each component is weighted by how much it historically improved forward returns; the weights sum to 20. The full methodology — including what we tested and rejected — is public on the daily read.

What would change our answer

  • → the 50-day average itself is sloping upward
  • → the latest swing high broke above the prior one
  • → price is within 3% of its breakout trigger

Key levels & context

Last close$0.0101
Breakout trigger$0.0106 (5.2% away)
50-day average$0.007704 (price +30.5% vs it)
Volatility (ATR14)7.0% / day
RSI(14) / MACD71 / positive
LiquidityOK (mcap rank #103)

Can you time Pudgy Penguins with moving averages?

One rule, fully visible: hold PENGU while its 2-day average is above its 75-day average, stand in cash when it isn't. Of the 295 fast/slow pairs we sweep daily across 1.6 years of history, 2/75 is this coin's best — in hindsight. Every triangle below is a real cross: exactly when the rule bought and when it stepped aside.

2025-04-23 · go long · $0.0066242025-06-15 · go to cash · $0.0097812025-06-16 · go long · $0.01012025-06-17 · go to cash · $0.0092322025-06-28 · go long · $0.01392025-09-05 · go to cash · $0.02922025-09-07 · go long · $0.03062025-09-22 · go to cash · $0.03092026-01-05 · go long · $0.01312026-01-08 · go to cash · $0.01202026-01-12 · go long · $0.01182026-01-18 · go to cash · $0.01072026-04-14 · go long · $0.0068062026-05-28 · go to cash · $0.0077242026-08-10 · go long · $0.0065282026-08-12 · go to cash · $0.006212026-08-20 · go long · $0.0071772026-09-15 · go to cash · $0.0068532026-09-17 · go long · $0.007266Mar 2025Sep 2025Mar 2026Sep 2026$0.0431$0.003868
closeSMA 2 (fast)SMA 75 (slow)rule says hold▲ go long▼ go to cash
Last two years shown (19 of 19 crosses in the full 1.6-year history). Hover any triangle for the exact date and price.
×3.6
the rule · 128%/yr
×0.4
buy & hold · -43%/yr
-43%
worst drawdown vs -91% buy & hold
10 · 50%
trades · win rate
×3.5
after 0.2%/side fees
LONG
since 2026-09-17
SMA 2/5: +75%/yrSMA 2/8: +22%/yrSMA 2/10: +26%/yrSMA 2/12: +47%/yrSMA 2/15: +64%/yrSMA 2/18: +24%/yrSMA 2/20: +63%/yrSMA 2/21: +51%/yrSMA 2/25: +126%/yrSMA 2/30: +88%/yrSMA 2/34: +68%/yrSMA 2/38: +82%/yrSMA 2/40: +90%/yrSMA 2/44: +90%/yrSMA 2/50: +51%/yrSMA 2/55: +65%/yrSMA 2/60: +86%/yrSMA 2/75: +128%/yrSMA 2/100: +86%/yrSMA 2/120: +25%/yrSMA 2/150: +42%/yrSMA 2/200: +0%/yrSMA 3/5: +42%/yrSMA 3/8: +22%/yrSMA 3/10: +7%/yrSMA 3/12: +33%/yrSMA 3/15: +64%/yrSMA 3/18: +44%/yrSMA 3/20: +58%/yrSMA 3/21: +60%/yrSMA 3/25: +122%/yrSMA 3/30: +60%/yrSMA 3/34: +65%/yrSMA 3/38: +61%/yrSMA 3/40: +66%/yrSMA 3/44: +84%/yrSMA 3/50: +72%/yrSMA 3/55: +38%/yrSMA 3/60: +42%/yrSMA 3/75: +105%/yrSMA 3/100: +54%/yrSMA 3/120: +15%/yrSMA 3/150: +58%/yrSMA 3/200: +7%/yrSMA 4/5: -14%/yrSMA 4/8: -38%/yrSMA 4/10: -30%/yrSMA 4/12: +3%/yrSMA 4/15: +73%/yrSMA 4/18: +81%/yrSMA 4/20: +93%/yrSMA 4/21: +67%/yrSMA 4/25: +114%/yrSMA 4/30: +62%/yrSMA 4/34: +39%/yrSMA 4/38: +57%/yrSMA 4/40: +57%/yrSMA 4/44: +60%/yrSMA 4/50: +41%/yrSMA 4/55: +41%/yrSMA 4/60: +27%/yrSMA 4/75: +68%/yrSMA 4/100: +48%/yrSMA 4/120: +35%/yrSMA 4/150: +87%/yrSMA 4/200: +5%/yrSMA 5/8: -24%/yrSMA 5/10: +19%/yrSMA 5/12: +43%/yrSMA 5/15: +60%/yrSMA 5/18: +80%/yrSMA 5/20: +84%/yrSMA 5/21: +53%/yrSMA 5/25: +112%/yrSMA 5/30: +65%/yrSMA 5/34: +88%/yrSMA 5/38: +79%/yrSMA 5/40: +94%/yrSMA 5/44: +71%/yrSMA 5/50: +64%/yrSMA 5/55: +36%/yrSMA 5/60: +32%/yrSMA 5/75: +101%/yrSMA 5/100: +65%/yrSMA 5/120: +36%/yrSMA 5/150: +74%/yrSMA 5/200: +7%/yrSMA 8/10: +14%/yrSMA 8/12: -5%/yrSMA 8/15: +60%/yrSMA 8/18: +94%/yrSMA 8/20: +45%/yrSMA 8/21: +43%/yrSMA 8/25: +21%/yrSMA 8/30: +64%/yrSMA 8/34: +38%/yrSMA 8/38: +59%/yrSMA 8/40: +58%/yrSMA 8/44: +40%/yrSMA 8/50: +9%/yrSMA 8/55: +9%/yrSMA 8/60: +66%/yrSMA 8/75: +54%/yrSMA 8/100: +82%/yrSMA 8/120: +39%/yrSMA 8/150: +32%/yrSMA 8/200: -15%/yrSMA 10/12: -8%/yrSMA 10/15: +96%/yrSMA 10/18: +117%/yrSMA 10/20: +52%/yrSMA 10/21: +56%/yrSMA 10/25: +80%/yrSMA 10/30: +48%/yrSMA 10/34: +48%/yrSMA 10/38: +30%/yrSMA 10/40: +34%/yrSMA 10/44: +28%/yrSMA 10/50: +16%/yrSMA 10/55: +36%/yrSMA 10/60: +62%/yrSMA 10/75: +15%/yrSMA 10/100: +74%/yrSMA 10/120: +23%/yrSMA 10/150: +4%/yrSMA 10/200: -4%/yrSMA 12/15: +114%/yrSMA 12/18: +91%/yrSMA 12/20: +57%/yrSMA 12/21: +86%/yrSMA 12/25: +57%/yrSMA 12/30: +21%/yrSMA 12/34: +34%/yrSMA 12/38: +50%/yrSMA 12/40: +58%/yrSMA 12/44: +49%/yrSMA 12/50: +21%/yrSMA 12/55: +22%/yrSMA 12/60: +8%/yrSMA 12/75: +5%/yrSMA 12/100: +91%/yrSMA 12/120: +14%/yrSMA 12/150: +18%/yrSMA 12/200: +22%/yrSMA 15/18: +91%/yrSMA 15/20: +90%/yrSMA 15/21: +16%/yrSMA 15/25: +40%/yrSMA 15/30: +34%/yrSMA 15/34: +73%/yrSMA 15/38: +53%/yrSMA 15/40: +43%/yrSMA 15/44: +36%/yrSMA 15/50: +36%/yrSMA 15/55: +73%/yrSMA 15/60: +20%/yrSMA 15/75: +6%/yrSMA 15/100: +75%/yrSMA 15/120: +16%/yrSMA 15/150: +49%/yrSMA 15/200: +22%/yrSMA 18/20: +12%/yrSMA 18/21: +36%/yrSMA 18/25: -5%/yrSMA 18/30: +38%/yrSMA 18/34: +49%/yrSMA 18/38: +15%/yrSMA 18/40: +12%/yrSMA 18/44: +4%/yrSMA 18/50: -5%/yrSMA 18/55: +29%/yrSMA 18/60: +17%/yrSMA 18/75: -5%/yrSMA 18/100: +93%/yrSMA 18/120: +10%/yrSMA 18/150: +9%/yrSMA 18/200: -4%/yrSMA 20/21: +22%/yrSMA 20/25: +36%/yrSMA 20/30: +22%/yrSMA 20/34: +13%/yrSMA 20/38: -7%/yrSMA 20/40: -3%/yrSMA 20/44: +14%/yrSMA 20/50: +23%/yrSMA 20/55: +16%/yrSMA 20/60: +2%/yrSMA 20/75: -4%/yrSMA 20/100: +74%/yrSMA 20/120: +12%/yrSMA 20/150: +7%/yrSMA 20/200: -21%/yrSMA 21/25: +35%/yrSMA 21/30: +7%/yrSMA 21/34: +6%/yrSMA 21/38: -9%/yrSMA 21/40: +4%/yrSMA 21/44: +12%/yrSMA 21/50: +20%/yrSMA 21/55: +1%/yrSMA 21/60: +23%/yrSMA 21/75: +17%/yrSMA 21/100: +65%/yrSMA 21/120: +15%/yrSMA 21/150: +16%/yrSMA 21/200: -23%/yrSMA 25/30: -34%/yrSMA 25/34: -33%/yrSMA 25/38: +11%/yrSMA 25/40: +33%/yrSMA 25/44: +20%/yrSMA 25/50: +14%/yrSMA 25/55: -4%/yrSMA 25/60: +2%/yrSMA 25/75: +21%/yrSMA 25/100: +55%/yrSMA 25/120: +16%/yrSMA 25/150: +46%/yrSMA 25/200: -26%/yrSMA 30/34: -7%/yrSMA 30/38: +11%/yrSMA 30/40: +13%/yrSMA 30/44: -2%/yrSMA 30/50: -24%/yrSMA 30/55: -21%/yrSMA 30/60: -30%/yrSMA 30/75: +3%/yrSMA 30/100: +11%/yrSMA 30/120: +21%/yrSMA 30/150: +43%/yrSMA 30/200: -51%/yrSMA 34/38: -13%/yrSMA 34/40: -15%/yrSMA 34/44: -2%/yrSMA 34/50: -31%/yrSMA 34/55: -40%/yrSMA 34/60: -39%/yrSMA 34/75: -14%/yrSMA 34/100: +22%/yrSMA 34/120: +32%/yrSMA 34/150: +48%/yrSMA 34/200: -47%/yrSMA 38/40: -5%/yrSMA 38/44: -34%/yrSMA 38/50: -46%/yrSMA 38/55: -49%/yrSMA 38/60: -36%/yrSMA 38/75: +50%/yrSMA 38/100: +15%/yrSMA 38/120: +27%/yrSMA 38/150: +49%/yrSMA 38/200: -47%/yrSMA 40/44: -53%/yrSMA 40/50: -29%/yrSMA 40/55: -32%/yrSMA 40/60: -20%/yrSMA 40/75: +13%/yrSMA 40/100: +24%/yrSMA 40/120: +23%/yrSMA 40/150: +53%/yrSMA 40/200: -51%/yrSMA 44/50: -42%/yrSMA 44/55: -31%/yrSMA 44/60: +9%/yrSMA 44/75: +26%/yrSMA 44/100: +42%/yrSMA 44/120: +1%/yrSMA 44/150: +63%/yrSMA 44/200: -36%/yrSMA 50/55: +26%/yrSMA 50/60: +74%/yrSMA 50/75: +13%/yrSMA 50/100: +22%/yrSMA 50/120: +14%/yrSMA 50/150: +22%/yrSMA 50/200: -27%/yrSMA 55/60: +63%/yrSMA 55/75: -8%/yrSMA 55/100: +27%/yrSMA 55/120: +31%/yrSMA 55/150: -3%/yrSMA 55/200: -37%/yrSMA 60/75: +42%/yrSMA 60/100: +35%/yrSMA 60/120: +52%/yrSMA 60/150: +14%/yrSMA 60/200: -53%/yrSMA 75/100: +17%/yrSMA 75/120: +67%/yrSMA 75/150: +27%/yrSMA 75/200: -55%/yrSMA 100/120: -3%/yrSMA 100/150: +14%/yrSMA 100/200: -66%/yrSMA 150/200: -53%/yr5152540601502002818304475150slow average (days) →
Rows = fast average, columns = slow. Greenest cell +128%/yr, reddest -66%/yr — scale is relative to this coin only. The white square is the pair charted on the left. Hover any cell for its numbers.

The map behind the pair

Each square is one fast/slow combination, coloured by what it returned per year holding PENGU only while its fast average was above its slow one. The chart on the left is the white square, traded for real — every whipsaw included. A fast average this short is classic noise-chasing — expect far less out of sample.

Honest math: 10 round trips at 0.2% fees per side turns ×3.6 into ×3.5 — still ahead of buy & hold's ×0.4. Right now the rule is long (since 2026-09-17). This is an educational backtest, not a strategy we sell — our product's regime gate works on the same principle, one deliberately slow pair, validated out of sample.

Every trade the rule made — 10 round trips, newest first

5 winners, 5 losers. Cross-close to cross-close, before fees. The open row is the current position marked to the last close.

EnteredExitedIn atOut atReturnDays
2026-09-17still open$0.007266$0.0107+47.7%6
2026-08-202026-09-15$0.007177$0.006853-4.5%26
2026-08-102026-08-12$0.006528$0.00621-4.9%2
2026-04-142026-05-28$0.006806$0.007724+13.5%44
2026-01-122026-01-18$0.0118$0.0107-9.2%6
2026-01-052026-01-08$0.0131$0.0120-8.6%3
2025-09-072025-09-22$0.0306$0.0309+0.8%15
2025-06-282025-09-05$0.0139$0.0292+109.6%69
2025-06-162025-06-17$0.0101$0.009232-8.3%1
2025-04-232025-06-15$0.006624$0.009781+47.7%53

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