Live structure read · updated daily

Is Ondo (ONDO) worth buying right now?

One of the leaders.
Structure score 16/20 Strong tier

Ondo scores 16/20 today — Strong tier — and the market regime is risk-on, the only regime where our validated edge exists. This is exactly the kind of chart the model was built to surface.

Last close $0.4413
7-day +27.5%
30-day +16.0%
RSI(14) 66
Mcap rank #49
Bitcoin regime: RISK-ON — golden cross on 2026-09-08, 15 days ago. This is the regime where our validated edge exists: top-tier charts beat bottom-tier by ~12.5 percentage points over the next 30 days. Live regime status →

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The last 90 days

trigger $0.4639$0.4639$0.3017
close20-day avg50-day avgbreakout trigger

Today's read, in plain English

What's working: price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages; the 50-day average itself is sloping upward; the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average). What's missing: it is lagging Bitcoin over the last 90 days; it hasn't printed a higher swing high yet; price is still far from its breakout trigger. Momentum context: RSI(14) is at 66 with positive MACD. The breakout trigger sits at $0.4639, about 5.1% above the last close.

The 10-component rubric

What's working (7)

  • ✓price sits above its rising 20- and 50-day averages+3
  • ✓the 50-day average itself is sloping upward+3
  • ✓the weekly trend gate is open (weekly close above its 10-week average)+3
  • ✓pullbacks are bottoming higher than the last one+2
  • ✓RSI sits in the healthy 50–72 trend band+2
  • ✓up-days carry more volume than down-days+2
  • ✓MACD momentum is on the positive side+1

What's missing (3)

  • ✗it is lagging Bitcoin over the last 90 days+2 missed
  • ✗it hasn't printed a higher swing high yet+1 missed
  • ✗price is still far from its breakout trigger+1 missed

Each component is weighted by how much it historically improved forward returns; the weights sum to 20. The full methodology — including what we tested and rejected — is public on the daily read.

What would change our answer

  • → it is outperforming Bitcoin over the last 90 days
  • → the latest swing high broke above the prior one
  • → price is within 3% of its breakout trigger

Key levels & context

Last close$0.4413
Breakout trigger$0.4639 (5.1% away)
50-day average$0.3703 (price +19.2% vs it)
Volatility (ATR14)6.5% / day
RSI(14) / MACD66 / positive
LiquidityOK (mcap rank #49)

Can you time Ondo with moving averages?

One rule, fully visible: hold ONDO while its 55-day average is above its 75-day average, stand in cash when it isn't. Of the 295 fast/slow pairs we sweep daily across 1.2 years of history, 55/75 is this coin's best — in hindsight. Every triangle below is a real cross: exactly when the rule bought and when it stepped aside.

2025-08-06 · go long · $0.94112025-09-20 · go to cash · $1.012026-04-20 · go long · $0.25532026-04-21 · go to cash · $0.25812026-05-02 · go long · $0.28362026-07-13 · go to cash · $0.31092026-08-18 · go long · $0.32632026-09-22 · go to cash · $0.4413Jun 2025Nov 2025Apr 2026Sep 2026$1.14$0.2251
closeSMA 55 (fast)SMA 75 (slow)rule says hold▲ go long▼ go to cash
Last two years shown (8 of 8 crosses in the full 1.2-year history). Hover any triangle for the exact date and price.
×1.6
the rule · 47%/yr
×0.5
buy & hold · -38%/yr
-32%
worst drawdown vs -80% buy & hold
4 · 100%
trades · win rate
×1.6
after 0.2%/side fees
IN CASH
since 2026-09-22
SMA 2/5: -36%/yrSMA 2/8: -14%/yrSMA 2/10: -30%/yrSMA 2/12: -44%/yrSMA 2/15: -51%/yrSMA 2/18: -52%/yrSMA 2/20: -38%/yrSMA 2/21: -37%/yrSMA 2/25: -23%/yrSMA 2/30: -43%/yrSMA 2/34: -26%/yrSMA 2/38: -6%/yrSMA 2/40: -10%/yrSMA 2/44: -22%/yrSMA 2/50: -33%/yrSMA 2/55: -23%/yrSMA 2/60: -8%/yrSMA 2/75: +1%/yrSMA 2/100: -20%/yrSMA 2/120: -30%/yrSMA 2/150: -1%/yrSMA 2/200: -41%/yrSMA 3/5: -30%/yrSMA 3/8: -13%/yrSMA 3/10: -32%/yrSMA 3/12: -36%/yrSMA 3/15: -51%/yrSMA 3/18: -44%/yrSMA 3/20: -45%/yrSMA 3/21: -45%/yrSMA 3/25: -32%/yrSMA 3/30: -34%/yrSMA 3/34: -22%/yrSMA 3/38: -20%/yrSMA 3/40: -24%/yrSMA 3/44: -27%/yrSMA 3/50: -22%/yrSMA 3/55: -23%/yrSMA 3/60: -25%/yrSMA 3/75: -18%/yrSMA 3/100: -19%/yrSMA 3/120: -34%/yrSMA 3/150: -1%/yrSMA 3/200: -20%/yrSMA 4/5: -50%/yrSMA 4/8: -12%/yrSMA 4/10: -23%/yrSMA 4/12: -35%/yrSMA 4/15: -60%/yrSMA 4/18: -50%/yrSMA 4/20: -31%/yrSMA 4/21: -28%/yrSMA 4/25: -18%/yrSMA 4/30: -25%/yrSMA 4/34: -27%/yrSMA 4/38: -10%/yrSMA 4/40: -15%/yrSMA 4/44: -11%/yrSMA 4/50: -27%/yrSMA 4/55: -26%/yrSMA 4/60: -14%/yrSMA 4/75: -14%/yrSMA 4/100: -12%/yrSMA 4/120: -36%/yrSMA 4/150: -22%/yrSMA 4/200: -7%/yrSMA 5/8: -9%/yrSMA 5/10: -28%/yrSMA 5/12: -29%/yrSMA 5/15: -59%/yrSMA 5/18: -53%/yrSMA 5/20: -38%/yrSMA 5/21: -30%/yrSMA 5/25: -21%/yrSMA 5/30: -42%/yrSMA 5/34: -27%/yrSMA 5/38: -22%/yrSMA 5/40: -18%/yrSMA 5/44: -15%/yrSMA 5/50: -23%/yrSMA 5/55: -7%/yrSMA 5/60: -10%/yrSMA 5/75: -17%/yrSMA 5/100: -14%/yrSMA 5/120: -21%/yrSMA 5/150: -25%/yrSMA 5/200: -2%/yrSMA 8/10: -39%/yrSMA 8/12: -64%/yrSMA 8/15: -53%/yrSMA 8/18: -48%/yrSMA 8/20: -33%/yrSMA 8/21: -29%/yrSMA 8/25: -34%/yrSMA 8/30: -31%/yrSMA 8/34: -26%/yrSMA 8/38: -28%/yrSMA 8/40: -23%/yrSMA 8/44: -25%/yrSMA 8/50: -5%/yrSMA 8/55: -13%/yrSMA 8/60: -29%/yrSMA 8/75: -28%/yrSMA 8/100: -23%/yrSMA 8/120: -37%/yrSMA 8/150: -46%/yrSMA 8/200: -5%/yrSMA 10/12: -66%/yrSMA 10/15: -53%/yrSMA 10/18: -27%/yrSMA 10/20: +1%/yrSMA 10/21: -5%/yrSMA 10/25: -2%/yrSMA 10/30: -15%/yrSMA 10/34: -12%/yrSMA 10/38: -21%/yrSMA 10/40: -13%/yrSMA 10/44: -11%/yrSMA 10/50: -4%/yrSMA 10/55: -14%/yrSMA 10/60: -23%/yrSMA 10/75: -25%/yrSMA 10/100: -4%/yrSMA 10/120: -41%/yrSMA 10/150: -27%/yrSMA 10/200: +10%/yrSMA 12/15: -29%/yrSMA 12/18: -6%/yrSMA 12/20: +22%/yrSMA 12/21: +38%/yrSMA 12/25: -10%/yrSMA 12/30: -26%/yrSMA 12/34: -0%/yrSMA 12/38: +13%/yrSMA 12/40: -4%/yrSMA 12/44: +9%/yrSMA 12/50: -9%/yrSMA 12/55: -17%/yrSMA 12/60: -17%/yrSMA 12/75: -23%/yrSMA 12/100: +7%/yrSMA 12/120: -11%/yrSMA 12/150: -16%/yrSMA 12/200: +12%/yrSMA 15/18: +20%/yrSMA 15/20: +31%/yrSMA 15/21: +7%/yrSMA 15/25: -5%/yrSMA 15/30: -24%/yrSMA 15/34: +10%/yrSMA 15/38: +12%/yrSMA 15/40: -6%/yrSMA 15/44: -9%/yrSMA 15/50: +13%/yrSMA 15/55: -1%/yrSMA 15/60: -8%/yrSMA 15/75: -21%/yrSMA 15/100: +12%/yrSMA 15/120: +7%/yrSMA 15/150: +5%/yrSMA 15/200: +31%/yrSMA 18/20: +3%/yrSMA 18/21: +24%/yrSMA 18/25: -7%/yrSMA 18/30: -13%/yrSMA 18/34: -9%/yrSMA 18/38: -5%/yrSMA 18/40: -3%/yrSMA 18/44: -6%/yrSMA 18/50: +8%/yrSMA 18/55: -15%/yrSMA 18/60: -18%/yrSMA 18/75: -19%/yrSMA 18/100: -1%/yrSMA 18/120: -32%/yrSMA 18/150: +1%/yrSMA 18/200: +22%/yrSMA 20/21: -3%/yrSMA 20/25: -5%/yrSMA 20/30: -17%/yrSMA 20/34: -13%/yrSMA 20/38: -11%/yrSMA 20/40: -0%/yrSMA 20/44: -6%/yrSMA 20/50: +2%/yrSMA 20/55: -20%/yrSMA 20/60: -14%/yrSMA 20/75: -19%/yrSMA 20/100: -5%/yrSMA 20/120: -47%/yrSMA 20/150: -21%/yrSMA 20/200: +11%/yrSMA 21/25: +4%/yrSMA 21/30: -12%/yrSMA 21/34: -8%/yrSMA 21/38: -9%/yrSMA 21/40: +1%/yrSMA 21/44: -3%/yrSMA 21/50: +8%/yrSMA 21/55: -18%/yrSMA 21/60: -17%/yrSMA 21/75: -20%/yrSMA 21/100: -15%/yrSMA 21/120: -46%/yrSMA 21/150: -21%/yrSMA 21/200: +8%/yrSMA 25/30: -6%/yrSMA 25/34: -24%/yrSMA 25/38: -5%/yrSMA 25/40: -7%/yrSMA 25/44: +14%/yrSMA 25/50: +0%/yrSMA 25/55: -21%/yrSMA 25/60: -23%/yrSMA 25/75: -10%/yrSMA 25/100: -17%/yrSMA 25/120: -13%/yrSMA 25/150: +3%/yrSMA 25/200: +4%/yrSMA 30/34: -25%/yrSMA 30/38: -18%/yrSMA 30/40: -6%/yrSMA 30/44: +10%/yrSMA 30/50: +6%/yrSMA 30/55: -26%/yrSMA 30/60: -32%/yrSMA 30/75: -3%/yrSMA 30/100: -26%/yrSMA 30/120: -17%/yrSMA 30/150: -8%/yrSMA 30/200: +4%/yrSMA 34/38: -22%/yrSMA 34/40: +1%/yrSMA 34/44: +2%/yrSMA 34/50: -22%/yrSMA 34/55: -33%/yrSMA 34/60: -32%/yrSMA 34/75: -9%/yrSMA 34/100: -11%/yrSMA 34/120: -32%/yrSMA 34/150: -0%/yrSMA 34/200: +17%/yrSMA 38/40: +6%/yrSMA 38/44: -11%/yrSMA 38/50: -30%/yrSMA 38/55: -42%/yrSMA 38/60: -16%/yrSMA 38/75: +11%/yrSMA 38/100: -5%/yrSMA 38/120: -37%/yrSMA 38/150: -5%/yrSMA 38/200: +20%/yrSMA 40/44: -2%/yrSMA 40/50: -28%/yrSMA 40/55: -28%/yrSMA 40/60: -10%/yrSMA 40/75: +19%/yrSMA 40/100: +14%/yrSMA 40/120: -35%/yrSMA 40/150: -4%/yrSMA 40/200: +24%/yrSMA 44/50: -26%/yrSMA 44/55: -23%/yrSMA 44/60: -20%/yrSMA 44/75: +9%/yrSMA 44/100: +0%/yrSMA 44/120: -31%/yrSMA 44/150: -12%/yrSMA 44/200: +16%/yrSMA 50/55: -28%/yrSMA 50/60: -3%/yrSMA 50/75: +29%/yrSMA 50/100: -10%/yrSMA 50/120: -23%/yrSMA 50/150: -16%/yrSMA 50/200: +32%/yrSMA 55/60: +22%/yrSMA 55/75: +47%/yrSMA 55/100: -11%/yrSMA 55/120: -32%/yrSMA 55/150: -15%/yrSMA 55/200: +24%/yrSMA 60/75: +12%/yrSMA 60/100: -19%/yrSMA 60/120: -24%/yrSMA 60/150: -15%/yrSMA 60/200: +24%/yrSMA 75/100: -15%/yrSMA 75/120: -16%/yrSMA 75/150: -6%/yrSMA 75/200: +20%/yrSMA 100/120: -47%/yrSMA 100/150: -27%/yrSMA 100/200: +10%/yrSMA 150/200: +0%/yr5152540601502002818304475150slow average (days) →
Rows = fast average, columns = slow. Greenest cell +47%/yr, reddest -66%/yr — scale is relative to this coin only. The white square is the pair charted on the left. Hover any cell for its numbers.

The map behind the pair

Each square is one fast/slow combination, coloured by what it returned per year holding ONDO only while its fast average was above its slow one. The chart on the left is the white square, traded for real — every whipsaw included. Best-in-hindsight always flatters — treat it as a ceiling, not a promise.

Honest math: 4 round trips at 0.2% fees per side turns ×1.6 into ×1.6 — still ahead of buy & hold's ×0.5. Right now the rule is in cash (since 2026-09-22). This is an educational backtest, not a strategy we sell — our product's regime gate works on the same principle, one deliberately slow pair, validated out of sample.

Every trade the rule made — 4 round trips, newest first

4 winners, 0 losers. Cross-close to cross-close, before fees. The open row is the current position marked to the last close.

EnteredExitedIn atOut atReturnDays
2026-08-182026-09-22$0.3263$0.4413+35.2%35
2026-05-022026-07-13$0.2836$0.3109+9.6%72
2026-04-202026-04-21$0.2553$0.2581+1.1%1
2025-08-062025-09-20$0.9411$1.01+7.8%45

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